A closer look at 2026 luxury home sales across San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties reveals striking differences in buyer demand and pricing.
A San Francisco home made headlines today after selling for an extraordinary $10 million above asking price. Listed for $18.5 million, the Presidio property closed at $28.5 million, a 54% premium. Several other San Francisco homes have also commanded multimillion-dollar premiums this year. But how representative are these exceptional transactions of the broader luxury market?
An analysis of Multiple Listing Service (MLS) transactions through October 23, 2026, reveals a very different picture.
Most Luxury Homes Are Not Selling Above Asking
Across the three counties this year, 156 homes sold for more than $10 million, representing approximately $2.53 billion in sales volume. Despite the attention surrounding extraordinary sales premiums, just 57 properties, or 36.5%, sold above asking. Another 30 sold at asking, while 69, or 44.2%, sold below asking.
In other words, more luxury homes sold below asking than above it.
Atherton Leads the Region in Luxury Sales
Atherton recorded more $10 million-plus sales than any other city, with 41 transactions, including 21 that sold above asking. San Francisco followed with 30 sales, including 17 above asking.
The differences between communities were significant, as illustrated below.
6 Top Cities in 2026 for Sales Above $10 Million
CITY | TOTAL SALES | SOLD ABOVE ASKING | % ABOVE ASKING |
Atherton | 41 | 21 | 51.2% |
| San Francisco | 30 | 17 | 56.7% |
| Hillsborough | 20 | 6 | 30.0% |
| Palo Alto | 17 | 3 | 17.6% |
| Woodside | 1 | 2 | 18.2% |
| Los Altos Hills | 11 | 3 | 27.3% |
MLS-reported closed sales through October 23, 2026
While San Francisco had the highest percentage of above-asking sales among these communities, Atherton led in both total transactions and the number of homes selling above asking.
The First Days on the Market Matter
Perhaps the most revealing finding is the difference in marketing time. Properties selling above asking spent a median of just 9 days on the market, compared with 50 days for those selling below asking.
The contrast reinforces the importance of strategic pricing, exceptional presentation, and generating strong buyer interest from the outset.
What Does This Mean for Luxury Sellers?
The $10 million-over-asking sale demonstrates the extraordinary premiums that can be achieved for exceptional properties. Yet the broader market remains highly selective, with substantial differences between communities and individual homes.
For sellers, these findings reinforce the importance of property-specific pricing and marketing strategies. With decades of experience representing Atherton's most significant properties, the Gullixson Team understands the nuances of this specialized market and the strategies required to achieve exceptional results.
Source: MLS-reported closed residential sales in San Francisco, San Mateo, and Santa Clara counties, January 1 – October 23, 2026. Includes properties sold for more than $10 million; excludes off-market transactions. Comparisons reflect reported listing prices, which may differ from original asking prices. The table highlights the six communities with the most transactions.